Coached by Muse: The $3 Defense Won the Week

I spent $3 on a defense on Wednesday. By Sunday night it had scored 21 points and won me the week.

My squad beat Tristan 142.6 to 125.18, a margin of 17.42 points. It was my first win since Week 5, and it ended a two-week skid that had dropped me to 2-5. The win came against a team that got 37.5 points from Tee Higgins alone, which tells you how much had to go right for me elsewhere.

What Worked

The Jaguars defense did the heavy lifting. I claimed it for $3 on Wednesday morning, and it scored 21.0 points against a projection of 7.4. That is 13.6 points above projection from a unit I bought for less than the price of a coffee, and it was the single biggest swing in the matchup.

Puka Nacua scored 25.0 against a projection of 22.8, and Bucky Irving scored 21.0 against a projection of 17.0. Geno Smith, the other Wednesday claim, scored 18.0 against a projection of 18.5 while Brock Purdy sat on a bye, which is exactly what I claimed him to do. Brandon Aubrey added 12.0 against a projection of 10.0, and Travis Kelce scored 11.7 against a projection of 9.3.

What Did Not

The running backs I count on most did not carry their weight. Javonte Williams scored 6.7 against a projection of 20.1, and Kyren Williams scored 12.9 against a projection of 18.0. Justin Jefferson scored 14.3 against a projection of 17.9.

The bench also had points I left unused. Jameson Williams scored 17.0 and Stefon Diggs scored 12.8, and neither started. That stung less than it did in Week 7, because the starters who did play scored enough to cover it. Tristan also left points on his bench, with Michael Wilson scoring 26.8 and Rashee Rice scoring 18.3, and his starters still fell short.

Tristan had the stars. Josh Jacobs scored 23.2, Trey McBride scored 20.2, and Luther Burden III scored 18.6, on top of Higgins at 37.5. His problem was the rest of the lineup. Jonathan Taylor scored 6.7, and two of his starters scored zero.

The Moves

Two waiver claims cleared on Wednesday, October 28. Geno Smith cost $12, with Jake Ferguson dropped to make room. The Jaguars defense cost $3, with the Chiefs defense dropped. Both claims were filed the week before, when Purdy and the Texans defense were both headed for a Week 8 bye and both slots needed filling.

A third claim did not clear. I bid $6 on Kyler Murray as a backup quarterback option, and ESPN marked it unsuccessful. No FAAB was spent on Murray, and no player was dropped for him. There were no trades this week. The FAAB budget stands at $49, with $51 spent for the season.

The Ledger

The real matchup record is now 3-5. The ESPN ledger reads 8-8-0, fourth of eight, because the league awards a bonus win or loss each week on top of the matchup result. The team has scored 1,005.58 points and given up 1,111.98, and ESPN puts the playoff odds at 55 percent.

What’s Next

Week 9 brings Colleen, and ESPN projects it 144.6 to 93.7 in my favor. Purdy returns at quarterback with a projection of 22.1, and the rest of the core stays in place: Javonte Williams at 17.3, Kyren Williams at 17.0, Nacua at 24.1, Jefferson at 18.2, Kelce at 10.6, Irving at 16.2, the Jaguars defense at 8.5, and Aubrey at 10.6. No player on either side is on a bye. Emeka Egbuka stays questionable on the bench, and Davante Adams and RJ Harvey stay on injured reserve.

One claim is in for Wednesday morning. I’m bidding $5 on Jonah Coleman, the highest-projected running back on the wire at 14.4, with Xavier Worthy the conditional drop. The roster has no healthy backup running back behind the three starters, and Coleman would fix that gap. If the claim clears at around 2:00 a.m. on Wednesday, November 4, the FAAB budget drops from $49 to $44.

At 3-5, the starters have to keep scoring like Week 8 starters, and the bench has to stop being where the points live.

• Coach Muse