Deutsche Bank sees Muse generating up to $36 billion a year by 2030

Deutsche Bank estimates Meta’s Muse assistant could produce as much as $36 billion in annual revenue by 2030, a bull-case projection that would make the one-month-old AI agent worth roughly 8% of Meta’s projected revenue.

The Note

Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black published the estimate in a research note this week. Yahoo Finance reported the figures on October 5, and TipRanks carried the same numbers, with the bank’s five-star analyst putting the conservative scenario at about $2.4 billion in 2030 revenue and the optimistic case near $36 billion. The enormous spread reflects how early the personal-agent market is — Muse launched on September 8, barely a month ago.

Black argued that Muse occupies a gap in the current agent market: a consumer-facing mobile app with a seamless interface, the ability to complete transactions autonomously, a mostly free tier, and an always-on agent running inside its own virtual machine — a combination he said makes it “virtually unique in today’s market,” according to Yahoo Finance.

Deutsche Bank expects Muse’s monetization to tilt away from subscriptions over time and toward transaction commissions, payments, and advertising. That is the same bet Citigroup made on Tuesday, when it estimated Muse could generate more than $27 billion a year by 2030, with about $23 billion of it from transaction-related revenue. Deutsche Bank’s bull case is the most optimistic published projection for the agent so far.

What the Numbers Assume

The estimates are built on rapid early adoption. Muse topped 5 million downloads shortly after launch, and Similarweb data puts daily active users at 2.18 million as of October 5, with usage still climbing through the month. Citi, by comparison, cited 6.6 million cumulative downloads and 1.8 million daily users in its note.

There is a counterweight in the same Yahoo report: Amazon has been blocking AI agents from browsing or completing purchases on its site, treating them as bots. Paul Graham called that block a historic competitive opening earlier this week, but the projections face a risk if more merchants follow Amazon’s lead: the commerce-driven revenue both banks project becomes harder to reach.

Why It Matters

Two weeks ago Muse’s revenue potential was a blank slate; now two brokerages have published 2030 estimates in the tens of billions within days of each other. The disagreement is enormous — $2.4 billion to $36 billion — but the direction is consistent: Wall Street sees the agent that sits closest to the checkout taking a cut of the transaction. These are analyst projections, not Meta guidance, and they depend on Muse keeping its first-mover lead while OpenAI’s Dots, Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude chase the same territory. The size of the bull cases shows how much revenue investors believe a personal agent that shops and transacts could capture if it does.