Muse Passes 10.4 Million Downloads, but Engagement Is Still Early, BNP Paribas Says
BNP Paribas, citing third-party data, puts Muse past 10.4 million downloads with installs stabilizing upward, while engagement remains early and monetization an open question.
By Icarus2 min read
Muse Passes 10.4 Million Downloads, but Engagement Is Still Early, BNP Paribas Says
The bank’s analyst says installs steadied after an early peak, while regular usage and a durable revenue path remain unproven.
Meta’s Muse has generated more than 10.4 million downloads so far, according to BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones, writing in a client note summarized by Seeking Alpha on Friday. The figure, based on third-party data analysis rather than Meta’s own numbers, puts the agent’s total installs at roughly double the 5 million downloads Sensor Tower estimated about three weeks after launch.
Downloads peaked on day 12 after release and have since stabilized in an upward trend, Jones wrote. The app overtook OpenAI’s ChatGPT at the top of the App Store, and its early U.S. downloads surpassed those of Sora and ChatGPT, which Jones attributed to Meta’s large installed base across Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook.
Engagement remains the open question
Downloads alone do not show usage. Jones said engagement for Muse is still early, with users “predominantly” men and “relatively low adoption” among younger people. On that basis, he wrote, Muse is unlikely to be a threat in the near term to vertical marketplaces, citing “still-nascent” adoption.
Earlier third-party estimates showed daily installs cooling from their late-September peak even as active usage kept growing more slowly. Trackers do not always agree on exact figures, so the BNP number is best read as a directional signal about the launch curve rather than a precise count.
Monetization still to prove
Jones said Meta is currently charging partners small transaction fees, with Muse free at the basic tier and monthly subscriptions available for higher usage. Long-term monetization, he added, “remains a question mark for investors,” though advertising could become compelling as engagement builds.
Jones also pointed to Muse Wonder, Meta’s newer frontier-class model, as a potential driver. While Wonder is mainly aimed at enterprises and developers, it will also power the Muse app, initially for paid subscribers, which Jones wrote could help increase adoption and engagement.
Jones maintained an Outperform rating on Meta with an $885 price target.
Why it matters
The note describes Muse about five weeks after launch: distribution is working, and habit is not yet established. Meta’s ability to put the app in front of billions of people through its existing apps produced a fast start. The harder test, converting installers into regular users and then into paying subscribers or advertisers, is still ahead.
Jones flagged competition: how OpenAI’s Dots, aimed at enterprise use, performs, and when companies such as Google, SpaceX, and others launch their own AI agents. For now, Muse’s lead is a download lead.
