Citigroup estimates Muse could generate $27 billion a year by 2030

Citigroup on Tuesday published a research note arguing that Meta’s Muse assistant could become a major new revenue engine, estimating the AI agent could produce more than $27 billion in annual revenue by 2030 on the back of growing user adoption. Reuters first reported the note’s contents.

The brokerage’s estimates break down into roughly $23 billion from transaction-related revenue and about $4.5 billion from subscriptions, according to the Reuters report. Citi described Muse as increasingly becoming the “front door to the internet,” a tool through which users search, compare, and transact online.

Citi also provided fresh usage figures: Muse’s cumulative downloads have topped 6.6 million since its September 8 launch, while daily active users reached 1.8 million, with new use cases emerging and Meta ramping up awareness efforts, in Citi’s words.

From Downloads to Dollars

The numbers mark a step up from Muse’s last public milestone. At the end of September, Sensor Tower data put the app past 5 million downloads in 22 days, a faster pace to that mark than ChatGPT, Grok, or Claude. The additional 1.6 million downloads in the roughly one week since then suggest Meta’s awareness efforts are still pulling new users in.

Transaction revenue, at a projected $23 billion, dwarfs the $4.5 billion Citi expects from subscriptions. That split implies Citi believes Muse’s money will come primarily from commerce the agent drives: purchases made through Muse, referral fees, and transaction-related services, rather than the monthly plans Meta sells today.

That framing lines up with how Meta has been positioning the product. Muse has already topped free-app charts in the United States and Canada, and Meta has been expanding its reach into business workflows: Muse for Small Business launched on September 29 with integrations for Shopify, QuickBooks, Stripe, Canva, and other tools, and the open-source Muse Gadgets hardware SDK followed on October 2.

What It Means for Muse’s Bet on Commerce

The $27 billion figure is Citi’s projection, not Meta’s guidance, and it assumes a long runway of adoption in a personal-agent market that barely existed a month ago. But the size of the estimate reflects a view that has been gaining traction on Wall Street: that an agent which shops, books, and transacts on a user’s behalf sits closer to the transaction than any feed or search box, and can take a cut.

Meta’s stock has risen 12.4% this year and more than 20% since Muse debuted on September 8, Reuters reported, leaving the company within striking distance of a $2 trillion market value. Whether the personal-agent market rewards that first-mover advantage, as Citi believes, or draws in competitors like OpenAI’s Dots, Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude fast enough to split it, is the open question behind every one of these numbers.